Electability = The quality of being Electable
one of the most important but least understood words in electoral races & political campaigns.
✔ Electable = capable of being elected (as to public office - in a #Democracy)
► 'Electability' may be one of the most important but least understood words in modern electoral races and campaigns.
Some use the "Electability" factor to discriminate against candidates who are women, people of color, or minority candidates with different nationalities or religions.
This concept is essential in the 'primary races' = a preliminary election organized to elect the candidate(s) for a principal (especially presidential) election. (like those in the USA).
In such internal electoral races, in the primary campaigns, the voters may choose to vote for whichever candidate they think has the best chance of beating the main opposition candidate - either Incumbent or not (like the Democrats in the US want to nominate the candidate with the best chance of beating President Donald Trump - whether or not they like that contender the most).
When voting is depending on the candidate's eligibility, voters will not choose the candidate they like the most, but the one they guess the majority of their fellow voters will elect. In this case, the electability depends on imaginary 'swing voters' from the future.
If the voters are asked who they would choose (who they would make president) if they had a "magic wand," the answer may be often a different candidate than who they would actually vote for. That's because they don't think their "magic wand" candidate could win, so they offer their support to the most electable one.
• Theoretically, the problem is that no one, whether it's the voters, the consultants or the pollsters can be 100% sure which candidate has the most electability.
They can not predict the future, but using real-time polling and online surveys, professionals can measure the electability of a candidate at a certain moment. And, of course, there are companies working on forecasting models, trying to 'guess' or predict the electability of a candidate, as precisely as possible. But in any electoral race, we must expect the unexpected.
Voters are not very good at 'predicting' electability. They can be manipulated or misinformed. And, like in any electoral campaign, the #Perception (and not necessarily the checked facts) determine the voter behavior.
That's why #Electability is in the eye of the beholder.
Both the Reality and Perception of Electability have been the subject of research by academics, consultants and others.
=> One general conclusion may be that "moderate candidates" tend to do better than the more extreme candidates.
But if the moderate candidate is not promoted, accepted and perceived as an electable contender, the only chance to gain attention and to change the narrative and the perception of the voters is to do something different and to have a different, new and maybe more radical message.
=> Gender may or not be a factor to determine the Electability of a candidate. Women can win elections as often as men, but sexism may hurt a candidate if many voters are convinced that the 'swing voters' will not choose a woman.
=> It can get even more complicated when it comes to race and/or religion. In countries where these are important and controversial topics, we can expect barriers to entry into the electoral competition even before the possible voters' discrimination. Whatever the reality may be, on the day of the vote, the voters' perceptions of electability will matter most.
In order to have and defend a democratic and open society we need more correctly informed, educated and politically aware people!
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