CoVID 19 Implications beyond the rate of infection

I've been reading quite a bit about the Spanish Flu, its relationship to combat conditions in WWI, and the political instability that followed the after war years. Influenza’s scourge amplified, mutated, and went around the globe twice. It devastated nations. Men on the battle lines often heard of their loved ones dying from influenza, the ones they were fighting for, while they were engaged in combat on the Western Front. The misery and grief of this affliction can't be understated. While we imagine ourselves as different only the prominence of indoor rural plumbing, sanitation, access to advanced medical care & general nutrition separates us from them.

Like them we are equally susceptible to these invisible devils whose lethality strikes fear in the hearts of men. Civil response to such a calamity - if it were to happen again - remains another reactive lesson in focus and insight. Those who forget their past are condemned to relive it.

What We Know

Background. When I became interested in this subject as an area of medicine for the military and my master's work in counterintelligence, I was aware of gaps in response capability as the US was prepared for the "Superflu" [1]. Quite few documented pandemics killed tens of thousands. The Spanish Flu globally exterminated an estimated 50 million people. It was called the Spanish Flu because so many countries failed to accurately report what influenza did to their populations in a time of war. Spain had an open press and talked about it. While it was likely started by unsanitary conditions in the US Army in Ft. Riley, this scourge ravished the entire globe. Influenza nearly wiped out the archipelago of Fiji! By comparison, the Spanish Flu took more lives than the Black Death of the Middle Ages, and instead of moving at the speed of rats or small steamer ships, jet setting modern outbreaks travel around the globe in hours and days. Consider how China’s recent propaganda efforts misrepresent the mortality rate and rate of infection in favor of the Communist Party’s political talking points. Wuhan’s Novel Corona Virus is more lethal than the flu.

This paper is written for ordinary Americans (UDem note: or citizens of the world) with the science and perspective written in consideration for a concerned neighbor.

The Disease. The symptoms of this Corona Virus initially appear like a bad cold to those in immediate care, general practice or internal medicine [11]. Patients present with fever, chills, and shortness of breath. Once exposed to the Wuhan Novel Corona Virus 2019 (nCoV-2019) symptoms may appear between 2-14 days [11]. Some people have no symptoms. Others have a cold and recover. However, with sever cases of nCoV-2019, some acquire secondary pneumonias and die [12, 13]. The rate that this occurs is unknown. Like influenza, the aged and young are more affected; however, also like the Spanish Flu, nCoV-2019 appears that even ordinary healthy people can become severely harmed by this disease. If you have symptoms, if you see someone with these symptoms, encourage them to seek medical intervention.

Transmission. It is believed the first instance of the nCov-2019 was zoonotic in origin in that it jumped species [14]. The World Health Organization noted, "Detailed investigations found that SARS-CoV was transmitted from civet cats to humans and MERS-CoV from dromedary camels to humans [14]". Some have suggested bats were the originators in Wuhan, China, because a bio-weapons lab there experimented on Chiropteras. How this happened is a mystery. The exact rate of transmission is unknown. However, it is believed to be transferred person to person through fluids and contact with surfaces that have fluids on them [15]. That sneeze or cough can do it and it can stay on surfaces for up to 9 days. This means that a door handle at the grocery store you touched after your nCov-2019 neighbor with out symptoms did yesterday and after you rubbed your eyes, suggests that you have been exposed to nCov-2019.

Rate of Infection. To calculate the rate of infection, you take the number of infections and divide by the population at risk and multiply by the constant (k). If this number is less than one, the disease will die out [4]. If the number is one, the condition will not die out but remain stable in the existing community [4]. When this number is higher than one, the disease will spread [4]. In Wuhan, the rate of infection was 2.6 [2]. Others suggest the number in a range of 1.4 and 3.9 [3]. Another study, an outlier, puts that number at 24 [10]. It is crucial to note that this is with draconian controls like masks, martial law, and isolation imposed by the Chinese Central Government on an unarmed population and a point that will be materially relevant later in this paper. These efforts appear to slow the spread of nCov-2019 and reduced exposure in China. However as of writing this paper in the end of February the rate of infection is higher outside of China than inside which signifies pandemic.

Rate of Mortality. The mortality rate is calculated by the number of deaths per number of cases then formed into a percentage [5]. On Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438, which put it at 2.1% [6]. However, the mortality rate in Wuhan is reported as 4.9% [7]. By comparison, the Spanish flu mortality rate was around 2.5% in the United States [8]. It remains imperative that people understand that nCoV-2019 is 34 times more lethal than the regular Flu [9]. Like influenza, the aged and young are more susceptible. This is a tremendous risk for public health officials and their populations they are charged with protecting.

Prevention. Other studies suggest that to clean your surfaces with disinfectant, wear a mask (N95 or better), wear goggles and gloves, and to engage in social isolation where appropriate [27]. Hand washing remains critical in prevention. Those who have adequate nutrition also directly benefit. Seek medical advice early on in symptoms. Not everyone can do this when there are bills to pay, and walking pneumonia is a norm when they have to.

Testing/Treatment. The Atlanta-based Center for Disease Control (CDC) pushed out kits around the country and it had problems with the kits. This created inaccurate results in the testing fields as numbers of afflicted have false positives and/or false negatives from these kits which will undoubtedly further distort how its reported and who will be quarantined. Self isolation protocols in treatment and in prevention for those who may have been exposed. There is no presently approved treatment protocol that cures the virus. Hospitals seeks to treat the symptoms and pneumonias.

The World Stage. I would be remiss if I didn't address some of the concerns about this virus. Like the Spanish Flu, the world is engaged in conflict. China and the US are involved in a trade war [16]. While there are inconsistent reports, some suggested that this nCov-2019 originated in a bio-weapons lab, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, in Wuhan, China [18]. Others postulated that China may have stolen nCov-2019 from Canada [19].

In America, President Trump's politics have celebrated the best economy ever in the history of the US, with unemployment rates at an all-time low for minorities and women [20]. nCov-2019 threatens all of those political and social gains for the US, and most believe nCov-2019 hasn't stopped with China. nCov-2019 has spread to Italy and South America, South Korea, Japan and other places. There are reports in Chicago, New York and in California. It is here now. The rate of infection is higher outside of China than in China currently.

Predictors. Elsewhere, in an ironic coincidence, a 1981 Dean Koontz book, The Eyes of Darkness,” predicted this virus by calling it Wuhan 400 [17]. It was called The Perfect Weapon in the book. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation donated to the Pilbrite Institute, which supported a wargaming event, called Event 201, of an outbreak [22]. John Hopkins University participated in the simulation, which predicted the deaths of 65 million people from a Coronavirus outbreak [23]. This is a significantly higher number than those who died in the Spanish Flu and other pandemics.

Chinese Dissidents at Risk. There are also rumors of political dissidents disappearing in the fog of this outbreak in Wuhan [28]. Some have suggested that China used the occasion to eliminate political opposition with extra-judicial killings. This is horrible for those concerned about human rights, and China has a history of doing this in the past [29]. The world remembers the Cultural Revolution. China appears to be using portable cremation units, and there is an information war of disinformation associated even with the virus as accusations about mortality are disputed. Several doctors have broken ranks with party officials. One early whistle-blower was given lesser assignments and died in the service of his fellow man [58]. Another doctor who broke ranks with party officials documented 50 deaths while the state only published 1. If the numbers are skewed 50:1 then consider the real mortality rate of this disease. [59].

Patents and Vaccines. It appeared that earlier claims regarding patents on the nCov-2019 by agencies associated with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation remain unsubstantiated as they related to earlier and different versions of Corona-virus [21]. Some of the research focused on Corona Virus in animals. Also, unsubstantiated are the claims of a vaccine being available before the outbreak although GlaxoSmithKline just made the adjuvant available [24/25]. Others reported a vaccine might be available later in 2020 [26] and some have suggested that it will be very expensive.

HIV, Weaponization and Off Label Drugs. Of interesting note, some researchers in India, when sequencing nCov-2019 observed similarities between HIV and RNA which supported the hypothesis that nCov-2019 is a weapon. Others are exploring the use of off label antivirals in treating nCoV-2019. Experimental use of off-label retro-viruals for HIV appears to hold promise. This off label use was documented by researchers Adedeji and Sarafianos in Curr Opin Viral journal. For Americans, the costs of these retro and antiviral therapies remains high and access in the US is not universal. An unintended consequence might be shortages of the drug if its off-label use is wildly employed to which HIV patients would suffer.

Analysis.

When faced with a horrible affliction, there is an incentive to embrace Ockham's razor and consider the most straightforward solutions regarding nCoV-2019. Curative rates, immunizations, barrier protection, sanitation practices, and the use of science to mitigate the threat to humanity remain important in obtained solutions. There is a rush to develop a vaccine. The potential for mutation is high as nCoV-2019 as vaccine solutions are engineered [53]. Long term longitudinal studies over a potential vaccine efficacy and safety may be overlooked in favor of a fast-track. Consider the case of the Saulk’s polio vaccine which infected millions with SV40 and caused cancer later in life. Researchers knew about the SV40 for years before its use was discontinued. Similarly, Hoppers investigative journalism suggested that HIV may have jumped species by using SIV infected tissues in Africa to create vaccines in the book called The River.

Don’t Underestimate nCoV-2019. Many in the US are oblivious to the public health concerns as these seem to be happening elsewhere. nCoV-2019 has not yet negatively impacted their lives. Unfortunately, I've had friends and family see that low number of mortality and suggest that it is not that bad. Younger Americans I know are more interest in their duck face poses on Instagram. There are several reasons why I believe this is a mistake but most notably, the rate of infection is now higher outside of China than with in the China, cases are appearing in the US where I live, and now the first case has come to St. Louis. It is here now and the problems are not monopolized by medicine and its patients. There is an economic consequence.

China Shut Down For A Month. Consider that the global supply chain, supported by China, remained unable to accept deliveries with a quarantined China. Orders were not delivered. Ships failed to sail and services not performed. There are currently billions of dollars tied up in these transactions. If we imagine a pandemic, this won't stop with China when it spreads to South America, Italy, South Korea, Japan, and the EU. These countries will experience similar disruptions of service and economic capability. It will cost the world economy lots of money in lost productive. Despite the recent trade deal with China, Donald Trump’s best economy ever is at risk.

Aging Populations Hit Harder. Countries with older populations will be hit harder with the virus and thus harder economically. Much of Europe has an aging population compared to the United States, and therefore when you view the impact of this virus across age groups, those countries with the aging people are going to be hit the hardest. This means their wealth, buying power, and solvency of businesses, credit, and cash flows will be at higher risk than those countries who are more able to go back to work quickly. We note the virus has jumped to Japan and Italy who both have older populations and negative birth rates.

Who Buys the Most from the US? The United States sells many of its goods and services to countries with aging populations. Japan, France, Germany, and the EU as a trading block are the largest customers of the American economy. If this nCov-2019 negatively impacts their populations to change buying habits, a credit crunch, loss of jobs, or another economic disaster in the wake of this virus, the US will be negatively affected by this economically. Jobs, services, the stock market, credit, market solvency and capacity will shift to the negative.

Negative Economic Consequences for China. A country cannot have positive economic consequences when it loses a month of production. China was under martial law and quarantine for the better part of a month. More people were placed under martial law and quarantined than live in the US following the outbreak. Chinese workers refused to return to work [36]. Many firms, after not operating a month, have money problems, and the probability that China will experience a credit crunch has increased dramatically [37]. As proof, China's repo rate just hit a seven-year high [38]. These stressors indicate insolvency in the Chinese market as suggested by the Governor of the Central Bank of China [40]. Major conglomerates run by the government are at risk of going bankrupt [39].

Global Food Shortages. Global Solar Minimums, great floods in the US Central States in 2019, and changes in climate have caused massive changes in crop yields all over the globe. China cannot produce enough grain to feed its people despite being the largest producer of grain in the world; it is still a net importer. Food Security is a critical factor in China's expansion into the Spratly Islands and their harassment of Philippine fishermen and other neighbors in international waters. In the short term, food supply chains were disrupted in Hong Kong and Wuhan when the virus broke out. Food could not be had from empty shelves, and the Chinese government failed to supply citizens with food. Grain cannot be fed to livestock without tremendous expense at increased market rates.

Similarly, women in the flu outbreak of 1918 were ravaged by the effects of the influenza virus. The German government could not produce food that would make people healthy and more were afflicted. Lots of people considered food a right and thus relied on a government to provide for it. Any program imagined by the state would have implementation and delivery problems because it must first confiscate productivity and wealth from some other place in the economy. Partisan guns cannot make food grow. Evidence of this is noted by the empty shelves in the recent nCoV-2019 epidemic in China. Influenza was a catalyst for Russians who revolted against the monarchy. Similarly, in Finland, political violence ravaged the people after the Spanish Flu. When the food runs out it will make things worse for millions.

nCov-2019 Goes Global. If China's repo market is at a seven-year high, the probability that the need for short term cash in other central banks will increase. There is an increased risk of recession and potentially a global depression. While it is not unanimous, there is a significant concern. Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman, Roach noted echoed this sentiment [30]. German officials warned of recession [31]. Japanese economic authorities offered similar concerns [32]. Similarly, in South Korea [33] and the Eurozone [34] concerns over recession are exclaimed. The world is waking up to the cost of this virus.

Markets in the US are reacting to these concerns as capital flows shift around the globe. The US markets in February of 2020 have negatively reacted to erase all gains in 2020 [35]. If nCov-2019 has a global impact, made in America will be seen less. The Observatory of Economic Complexity stated that "The United States is the 3rd largest export economy in the world and the 7th most complex economy according to the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). In 2017, the United States exported $1.25T and imported $2.16T, resulting in a negative trade balance of $910B [41]." If people don't buy from each other, the global economy will slide into recession.

Recession makes Cov-2019 worse. Jobs will be lost. Credit bubbles will pop, housing prices will fall, and global productivity will fall. Banks will become insolvent. This increases the risk for hyperinflation on multiple central banks who can’t even pass their own stress tests. There is increased potential for vulture capitalists to scoop up failed services, intellectual capital, and production lines in fire-sales and bankruptcies. Many communities are on the hook for bonds they've floated as baby-boomers in the US have moved assets that support fixed incomes to pay for city, county or state developments. This usually means bonds and vulnerable populations with more unemployed will be unable to pay those bonds. Credit rates will fall, and the cost of those services or the cost to restructure those debts will increase as taxpayers will be left on the hook. This will be the result of political class promising free goods and services with the taxpayer's money and much of that derived from the productivity of their grandchildren who didn't even get a vote. This is what a bond-servant is.

Political Violence on the Global Fringe. The Developing world may be vulnerable to upset and violence, and the second-order effects of not having access to proper services, water, and food from empty political promises may end with violent upheavals. Stewart, an expert in this area, noted, "Eight out of 10 of the world's poorest countries are suffering, or have recently suffered, from large scale violent conflict. Wars in developing countries have heavy human, economic, and social costs and are a major cause of poverty and underdevelopment [42]." When the Spanish Flu went around the globe, the stories tole were about the Great Powers. However, significant political, economic violence ensued as governments remained impotent to stop influenza. Adverse conditions got worse, and people revolted in what was then called the third world. There is nothing different about human nature now, with over a billion people living on less than $2/Day. This is a vulnerable population that does not have economic or food security, and there is a high probability developing governments-- high in corruption-- will also remain impotent against the spread of nCov-2019.

Political Violence in the Developed West. Over 50% of Americans are reliant on the Federal Government for services. Neither the Feds, nor their counterparts in the State and Local Governments cannot produce any product or service they do not first take from some other productive entity through confiscatory means. Every government program economically harms the people indirectly or directly. Millions of Americans do not have resources to last them a few months in cash, food, or water. Millions are on food Stamps, and millions are armed in their exercise of the second amendment to the US Constitution. If these services were to disappear the potential for violence escalates. Cities will be hit the hardest.

Marginalized and Balkanized. Americans continue to be divided over all kinds of personal, economic, and political issues. The US just endured an impeachment trial of its 45th President. Political rallies of the left have become violent and particular populations the US, traditionally, a mainstay of the social fabric are alienated. The US Army taught that Christians were extremists in a domestic terrorism class in 2013 [44]. US Department of Homeland Security and Colorado State Police similarly targeted Christians as potential terrorists also in 2013 [45]. Anti-Defamation League and the DHS have raised concerns over groups concerned about white-supremacists in the US while ignoring other racially or ethically oriented organized crime from Latinos, African-Americans, and Chinese and Russian groups [47]. Americans in the nCov-2019 debate the porous nature of their borders and label those who object, racists. Many Americans who love their neighbor--as religiously dictated-- have become weary of being labeled racist, sexist, or homophobes by the same government they elected to represent them. Americans in marginalized groups remember how the Obama administration weaponized the IRS against Christian political action groups and how Black Panther intimidation at the polls was not prosecuted by the DoJ. Americans understand how the same government wants to take away their guns sold them to drug dealers in Fast and Furious or human rights violators in Saudi Arabia in the largest arms deal ever. Where was their background checks?

US Martial Law and Curfews. If nCov-2019 came to the US, there is a high probability there would be martial law and curfews imposed by the local constabulary and even the National Guard. Millions of Americans might find their restricted movements (a violation of their Constitutional right to assemble) offensive to their freedom-loving sensibilities and not consider the low rates of nCov-2019 mortality to be relevant to their Constitution (a play on words on purpose). The reduced economic activity in these circumstances would hurt vulnerable communities with loss of jobs, bankruptcies, and reduced wages. Unrest from this situation increases the probability of martial law and curfews.

Preparing for Something. Americans remain concerned over the preparatory activities of the Federal Government. FEMA bought millions of disposable coffins for an undisclosed reason [48]. The US Postal Service was bought an inordinate amount of bullets for unknown reasons [49]. Other agencies not associated with law enforcement--like the IRS-- also went on bullet buying sprees. Economist Rickards, who wargamed with the Pentagon, noted that rich Westerners were building bunkers over concerns for potential economic disruption and violent conflict [43]. These preparatory actions indicated a change in posture that appears to prepare for low-intensity conflict. Many would consider these actions as a preparation for war.

Civil War. A country divided against itself cannot stand. Some believe efforts to divide Americans is by design [54]. Political commentator and former Presidential Candidate Pat Buchanan asked, "Will America remain one nation, or are we are on the road to Balkanization and the breakup of America into ethnic enclaves?" [55] Americans are being balkanized. A catalyst like nCov-2019 increases the probability of low-intensity conflict in a balkanized society.

It can happen here. With a balkanized and marginalized population who remain suspicious of State and Federal Agencies seeking self-preservation-- instead of protecting the rights of its citizens-- it wouldn't take much to ignite a low-intensity conflict. If the virus’s economic interruptions can create shortages of provisions, food, and water, no amount of force could mandate it. No amount of circuses could limit the dissatisfaction people would have with the evidence of empty promises in a place where even the rich would have supply problems. Furthermore, dependent populations have not engaged in self-sufficient efforts to remedy potential food supply issues. Cities might descend into a profoundly violent state with hungry masses. There is some historical evidence for this. Nationalized farms in Cuba saw production fall after Bautista was ousted. Russia killed millions in forced famines in the subjugation of Ukraine, and similar effects were had with agricultural reform during the Cultural Revolution in China as millions perished.

Furthermore, we have evidence on how this worked in Venezuela, where problems with martial law, hoarding, and necessary provisions a government failed to feed hungry people. Venezuelans were eating the animals in the zoo and prisoners engaged in canibalism. In the 1990's we saw similar political violence genocide and violence in Serbia, Croatia, and Montenegro. No one in the culture is trumpeting how it would be different or how America, in this case, would be exceptional.

Several stories note that DHS was preparing for Civil War [52] and that they were buying billions of hollow-point bullets [51]. The Washington Times suggested that a Civil War was nearly upon us as it had already started, and most Americans just didn't realize it [56]. This happened before. During the first shots of the Civil War most Americans were unaware of the attack on the fort Sumpter. Americans did not understand the political violence that would ensue. Currently, Americans don't know why the Civil War is coming [57]. Kawczynski wrote an entire book about it. Savage wrote a book on how to stop it. There are even names seeping in the American subculture for it, like Boog, Boogaloo, and Electric Boogaloo.

The Catalyst. nCov-2019 while deadly, is more of a catalyst in vulnerable political situations. Politicians in the US never let a crisis go to waste in a political power grab. There will be more laws and fines to change behavior and support local authorities whose reduced tax based due to recession will still need to pay those bonds. Authorities will come for the guns and they'll invent crimes, and ordinary people will be the target of that coercion.

nCov-2019 has a high potential to be the catalyst to take a volatile political situation, a vulnerable or disenfranchised population, and a disruption of services to be a spark that ignites a low-intensity conflict. This is the real danger of this invisible virus. Federal, State and Local agencies don't have the tools or resources to adequately deal with this nor can they force food to be on the shelves. They bought bullets instead of remedies. There is no vaccine, and the science won't be ready for many months on the safety of the one that will be produced. These agencies only have instruments of violence for which to protect the interests of the state and its continuity rather than the rights of the people for whom they claim to represent. That will leave quite a few more Americans disenfranchised from food, politics, and the process and thus increase the further potential for this to spiral out of hand. Americans can do somethings to avoid this scourge.

Conclusions and Personal Solutions.

Have a plan. Have a Plan. Have a plan. Matt Drudge said to have a plan. There are several communities in the United States that agreeably would not want to see these things come to fruition. It can be avoided if everyone does their part instead of believing that some one else will.

Preparation is more than nCov-2019 too. Even if it's not nCov-2019, what about a bad storm, tornado, or hurricane? What about an Elctro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) or an economic crisis that shuts down the whole thing? Preparation isn’t someone else's responsibility. It is yours.

It has been stated that it would be great if the pandemic imagined by nCov-2019 were a big "nothing burger" and that global supply chains were not disrupted or succumbed to recession or depression. If these aren't the case, without too much effort, a rainy comes to us all, and simple things can be done.

Pay off your debts and have cash. Get your financial house in order. Have some cash on hand for a crisis. $1000 in cash will go a long way in an emergency, especially if electronic debiting systems are disrupted by violence, natural disaster, or a catastrophe like an Electro Magenetic Pulse (EMP). Have other items to barter or trade with in an emergency.

Provision your Home. Have 30 days of food and water on hand. Buy N95 masks or better, gloves, and goggles. This will help in the cities by reducing the spread of nCoV-2019. Make sure you have enough toiletries to get through a month of isolation. Ensure that you have at least 90 days of medication on hand. Have an independent source of power. Plant a garden and grow some food.

Clean up your Life and Stay Healthy. Drinking too much? Get help. Wash your hands. Smoking quite a bit? It might be a good time to quit and wash your hands. Do you have another vice? Ditch it and wash your hands. Take to cleaning your home as well. Keep some hand sanitizer handy in your car, in your place of business and at home. Clean your doorknobs and surfaces, smartphone, steering wheel, and car door handles daily with disinfectant wipes. Limit your contact with people when appropriate. Eat a balanced diet. Isolate if you become infected and wash your hands.

Educate Yourself and Practice Resilience. The US Department of Homeland Security published a preparedness guide. This helpful introduction assists the reader with ideas of empowerment in a crisis or natural disaster. The Mormon Church also has a preparedness guide. Those seeking to do the best with what they have, where they are may glean information that might save their lives in a crisis. If the convinced that there is no increased risk, it is acknowledged that resilience is more difficult to imagine in populations who fail consider themselves vulnerable. I suggest reading a book about the Bosnian conflict and what happened when SHTF in those communities. Buy it, read it, and consider if this could happen to you? Take care of yourself and those you value and love, as the state and business community are likely to remain impotent against nCov-2019. Get involved with your community and create a Mutual Assistance Group or MAG. Find ways to be the solution to the problems created by nCov-2019 instead of waiting on others. This has always been the power of your life.

This article is written by Howard L. S. (Department Head, Program Manager, Operations Manager, Clinical Director, Practice Manager, Patient Services Director) Howard is responsible for the coordination of healthcare delivery of a specialty care practice for the United States Marine Corps, with an emphasis on expeditionary medicine. He performed medical support of Marine Corps Operations abroad and provided exceptional customer service to command as well as the injured.

The Opinions and Conclusions in this article belong to it's author! Please feel free to comment!

Sources:

[1] https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20040826/us-super-flu-plan-reveals-gaps-in-readiness#1

[2] https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-new-estimates-of-infection-rate-of-novel-coronavirus/

[3] https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

[4] https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#rsubsubvalues

[5] https://www.easycalculation.com/medical/annual-mortality-rate-calculator.php

[6] http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/xwbd/202002/35990d56cfcb43f4a70d7f9703b113c0.shtml

[7] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#nhc

[8] https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_flu-pandemic-deaths.htm

[9] https://www.hsacoalition.org/issue-analysis/global-mortality-rate-of-wuhan-virus-is-3-4-34-times-the-mortality-rate-of-the-flu/

[10] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/01/study-puts-global-2009-pandemic-h1n1-infection-rate-24